India & South Asian Neighbours

Analysis

India-Bangladesh: A Model of Cooperative Coexistence with Challenges

India-Bangladesh relations exemplify a complex yet robust partnership, critical for regional stability and India's strategic outreach to Southeast Asia. The Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) of 2015 stands as a testament to mature diplomacy, resolving a decades-old, intricate issue of enclaves and adverse possessions. This agreement, implemented through the 100th Constitutional Amendment Act, not only demarcated the border but also provided citizenship choices to enclave residents, fostering goodwill and trust. Economically, Bangladesh is pivotal for India's Act East Policy, serving as a land bridge to Northeast India and Southeast Asia. Initiatives like the BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement aim to unlock immense potential for trade and connectivity, transforming the region's economic landscape.

However, the Teesta river dispute remains a significant irritant. The river is a lifeline for millions in Bangladesh, especially during the dry season. India's inability to finalize a water-sharing agreement, primarily due to domestic political complexities (opposition from West Bengal), strains bilateral trust. Other issues include border killings, smuggling, and concerns over illegal migration, which often fuel domestic political narratives in India. Despite these, the overall trajectory is positive, driven by shared security concerns, economic interdependence, and cultural affinity.

India-Sri Lanka: Strategic Proximity and Enduring Ethnic-Maritime Tensions

India's relationship with Sri Lanka is defined by its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and the enduring ethnic question concerning the Tamil minority. The Palk Strait fishermen issue is a humanitarian and livelihood crisis, deeply rooted in historical fishing rights and the 1974 and 1976 Maritime Boundary Agreements that ceded Katchatheevu island to Sri Lanka. While these agreements legally established the maritime boundary, they did not adequately address the traditional fishing practices of Indian fishermen, leading to frequent arrests and confiscation of boats. This issue often becomes a flashpoint, impacting bilateral goodwill and domestic politics in Tamil Nadu.

India has been a significant development partner, especially in post-civil war reconstruction, focusing on housing, infrastructure, and livelihood support for war-affected Tamils. However, China's increasing footprint in Sri Lanka, particularly through infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City, poses a strategic challenge to India's regional influence and maritime security interests. India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy seeks to counter this by deepening engagement, offering viable alternatives, and emphasizing shared security interests in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Comparison Table: India's Relations with Bangladesh & Sri Lanka

Case Study: Resolving Complexities

India-Bangladesh: The Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) 2015

The LBA 2015 was a diplomatic triumph, resolving a complex issue dating back to the Radcliffe Award of 1947. It involved the exchange of 111 Indian enclaves (17,160 acres) in Bangladesh and 51 Bangladeshi enclaves (7,110 acres) in India, along with the resolution of adverse possessions. This agreement, ratified by the Indian Parliament through the 100th Constitutional Amendment Act, brought an end to the stateless existence of thousands of people and regularized a long-disputed border. It demonstrated India's commitment to resolving issues peacefully with its neighbours, aligning with the Gujral Doctrine's principles of non-reciprocity and good faith. The successful implementation of the LBA has significantly boosted trust and cooperation between the two nations.

India-Sri Lanka: The Katchatheevu Conundrum

Katchatheevu is a small, uninhabited island in the Palk Strait, ceded to Sri Lanka by India in 1974 through a bilateral agreement. Historically, Indian fishermen, particularly from Tamil Nadu, used the island for drying nets and accessing rich fishing grounds. The 1974 agreement, followed by another in 1976 that restricted fishing in each other's waters, effectively curtailed these traditional rights. This has led to persistent clashes, arrests, and confiscation of boats, creating a humanitarian crisis and a political hot potato in Tamil Nadu. The issue highlights the challenge of balancing sovereign boundaries with traditional livelihood rights and underscores the need for a pragmatic, long-term solution involving joint patrolling, sustainable fishing practices, and possibly a revised understanding of traditional fishing zones.

Mains Hooks

• Neighbourhood First Policy: Both relationships are central to India's policy of prioritizing its immediate neighbours for peace, stability, and prosperity.
• Act East Policy: Bangladesh is a crucial land bridge for India's connectivity initiatives with Southeast Asia.
• SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region): Sri Lanka's strategic location makes it vital for India's maritime security doctrine and broader Indo-Pacific vision.
• Gujral Doctrine: The LBA with Bangladesh reflects the doctrine's spirit of unilateral concessions and non-reciprocity to foster goodwill.
• Regional Connectivity: BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) initiative and various multimodal projects underscore the push for regional integration.

Recent Developments

• India-Bangladesh: Continued progress on connectivity projects (e.g., Chittagong Port access for India's Northeast), discussions on comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), and renewed efforts to find a solution for the Teesta river sharing, especially with new governments in both countries. India is also investing in Bangladesh's energy sector.
• India-Sri Lanka: Focus on increasing Indian investments, particularly in renewable energy and infrastructure (e.g., Trincomalee oil tank farm development). Ongoing dialogue on the fishermen issue, with calls for joint working groups and sustainable fishing solutions. India continues to monitor China's growing influence and offers alternatives for development projects, emphasizing debt sustainability and transparency.

India-Maldives: Detailed Analysis

India's relationship with the Maldives is underpinned by its strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and India's role as a net security provider.

Historical Context

India's commitment to Maldivian security was famously demonstrated during Operation Cactus in 1988, when India thwarted a coup attempt by Sri Lankan mercenaries. This intervention solidified India's image as a reliable security partner.

Strategic Significance

The Maldives' archipelago of 1,192 islands straddles vital East-West international shipping lanes, making it a critical node for maritime security. For India, a stable and friendly Maldives is essential for:

• IOR Security: Countering piracy, terrorism, and illegal fishing.
• HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief): India is often the first responder to natural disasters in the Maldives.
• Intelligence Sharing: Crucial for monitoring activities in the wider Indian Ocean.

Economic & Development Cooperation

India is a major trading partner and a significant source of tourists. Development assistance includes:

• Infrastructure: The Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP), funded by a $400 million Line of Credit (LoC) and $100 million grant from India, is the largest infrastructure project in the Maldives.
• Health & Education: India supports health facilities, provides medical training, and offers scholarships.
• Capacity Building: Training for Maldivian defence personnel, police, and civil servants.

Recent Dynamics & "India Out"

The "India Out" campaign gained traction under former President Yameen, alleging Indian military presence and questioning sovereignty. While the current Maldivian government under President Muizzu has also adopted a stance of reviewing agreements with India and seeking the withdrawal of Indian military personnel, it has also emphasized maintaining good relations. This reflects a delicate balancing act between domestic political pressures and external strategic realities. The campaign often leverages misinformation and nationalist sentiments.

China Factor

China's increasing engagement in the Maldives, particularly through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, has raised concerns in India. Chinese investments, often through large loans, have led to debt sustainability issues for the Maldives. Beijing's strategic interest lies in expanding its maritime presence in the IOR, potentially challenging India's traditional sphere of influence.

India-Myanmar: Detailed Analysis

Myanmar's geopolitical significance for India is immense, serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia and crucial for the security and development of India's Northeastern states.

Evolution of Policy

India's policy towards Myanmar evolved from supporting democracy (post-1988) to pragmatic engagement with the military junta (post-1990s) to counter China's growing influence and address security concerns in the Northeast. The Look East Policy (1992) and subsequently the Act East Policy (2014) solidified Myanmar's role as a cornerstone of India's regional strategy.

Connectivity & Economic Integration

• Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: This $484 million project, initiated in 2008, aims to connect Kolkata to Sittwe port by sea, then up the Kaladan river to Paletwa, and finally by road to Mizoram. It is vital for reducing transit time and costs for India's landlocked Northeast.
• India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway: A 1,360 km highway connecting Moreh (India) to Mae Sot (Thailand) via Myanmar, fostering trade, tourism, and people-to-people contact. Progress has been slow due to security challenges and terrain.
• Border Trade: Official border trade points like Moreh (Manipur) and Zokhawthar (Mizoram) facilitate cross-border commerce, though informal trade remains significant.

Security Dimensions

• Cross-border Insurgencies: Myanmar's porous border and ungoverned spaces have historically provided sanctuary for insurgent groups operating in India's Northeast. Joint operations and intelligence sharing are critical.
• Drug Trafficking: The Golden Triangle region, bordering Myanmar, is a major source of illicit drug production, impacting India's border states.
• Border Fencing: The decision to fence the entire 1,643 km Indo-Myanmar border and end the Free Movement Regime (FMR) is a significant policy shift aimed at enhancing security and controlling illegal migration, particularly in the context of the post-coup situation.

Rohingya Crisis & India's Stance

Since 2017, the persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar's Rakhine State has led to a massive refugee influx into Bangladesh and India. India has provided humanitarian aid (e.g., Operation Insaniyat) but maintains that repatriation is the long-term solution, emphasizing the need for safe, secure, and sustainable return to Rakhine State. India's stance balances humanitarian concerns with national security interests, given the potential for radicalization and demographic changes.

2021 Military Coup & India's Response

The military coup on February 1, 2021, overthrew the democratically elected government. India's response has been cautious, calling for the restoration of democracy while maintaining engagement with the military junta to protect its strategic interests and ongoing projects. This pragmatic approach is driven by concerns over China's influence, border security, and the fate of connectivity projects. India has also provided humanitarian aid to Myanmar.

China's Deepening Influence

China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and investor. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), part of BRI, includes the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port and railway lines, providing China with direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait. This strategic advantage for China poses a significant challenge to India's regional aspirations and security.

Comparison: India's Approach to Maldives vs. Myanmar

Mains Hooks

• Regional Stability: India's role in ensuring stability in the IOR and its eastern neighbourhood.
• Great Power Competition: India's efforts to counter China's growing influence in its backyard.
• Neighbourhood First Policy: The successes and challenges of India's engagement with smaller neighbours.
• Humanitarian Diplomacy: India's response to crises like the Rohingya issue and natural disasters.
• Connectivity & Economic Integration: The strategic importance of infrastructure projects for regional development and India's economic outreach.

Recent Developments

• Maldives: Post-election, President Muizzu's government has formally requested India to withdraw its military personnel, signaling a shift in bilateral dynamics. Discussions are ongoing regarding the modalities of withdrawal and replacement of personnel for operating Indian-gifted aircraft. India continues to emphasize its commitment to the Maldives' security and development.
• Myanmar: India's decision to fence the entire 1,643 km border with Myanmar and end the Free Movement Regime (FMR) marks a significant policy change aimed at enhancing border security and curbing illegal activities. This comes amidst continued instability in Myanmar following the 2021 coup and ongoing clashes between the military and ethnic armed organizations, impacting border areas and project implementation.

Analysis

India's relations with Nepal and Bhutan are deeply intertwined with its geopolitical and geostrategic interests in the Himalayas. While both share a 'special relationship' with India, their dynamics differ significantly.

India-Nepal Relations: A Complex Tapestry

• Strengths: The open border facilitates unparalleled people-to-people contact, cultural exchange, and economic interdependence. India remains Nepal's largest trading partner, source of investment, and transit provider. Security cooperation is vital for both, addressing cross-border crime and insurgencies. India's extensive development assistance covers infrastructure, health, and education.
• Challenges: The relationship has witnessed periodic strains. The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, while foundational, is viewed by some in Nepal as unequal, prompting calls for revision. Boundary disputes over Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura escalated significantly in 2020 after Nepal issued a new map claiming these territories. China's growing influence in Nepal, through infrastructure projects (BRI) and political engagement, presents a strategic challenge to India's traditional pre-eminence. Nepal's internal political instability and rising anti-India sentiment (often fueled by perceived Indian 'big-brother' attitudes or economic blockades, as seen in 2015) further complicate ties. Issues like cross-border crime, human trafficking, and differing approaches to water resource management also pose challenges.
• Strategic Importance: Nepal serves as a crucial buffer state, and its stability is vital for India's northern security. Its vast hydropower potential is significant for India's energy security, and joint projects can mitigate flood risks in the Indian plains.

India-Bhutan Relations: A Model of Trust and Cooperation

• Strengths: The relationship is characterized by exceptional trust and mutual respect. India has been Bhutan's steadfast development partner, particularly in the hydropower sector, which is the backbone of Bhutan's economy. Projects like Chukha, Tala, Mangdechhu, and Puna Tsangchhu exemplify this cooperation, providing clean energy to India and significant revenue to Bhutan. Security cooperation is robust, as demonstrated by India's assistance in flushing out insurgent groups from Bhutanese territory in 2003-04. Bhutan's 'Gross National Happiness' philosophy resonates with India's emphasis on sustainable development.
• Challenges: While largely harmonious, the relationship faces evolving dynamics. China's increasing assertiveness along the Bhutan-China border (e.g., Doklam standoff in 2017) directly impacts India's security interests. Bhutan's ongoing boundary talks with China, and its desire to diversify foreign policy and economic partners, require careful diplomatic navigation from India. Ensuring equitable benefits from hydropower projects and addressing environmental concerns are also ongoing tasks.
• Strategic Importance: Bhutan's strategic location, bordering Tibet, is critical for India's security, particularly safeguarding the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (Chicken's Neck). A stable and friendly Bhutan is indispensable for India's Himalayan frontier defense.

Comparison Table

Case Study

1. India-Nepal: Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura Dispute (2020):
   • Background: These territories, located at the tri-junction of India, Nepal, and China, have been administered by India since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Nepal claims them based on the 1816 Treaty of Sugauli. The dispute resurfaced after India published a new political map in November 2019 and inaugurated a road to Lipulekh in May 2020. Nepal responded by publishing its own map, including these areas, and amending its constitution to reflect this. This incident highlighted the fragility of the 'special relationship' and the need for sustained diplomatic dialogue to resolve historical boundary issues.
2. India-Bhutan: Doklam Standoff (2017):
   • Background: Chinese troops attempted to construct a road in the Doklam plateau, an area claimed by both China and Bhutan. Indian troops intervened, citing Bhutan's request and the strategic implications for India's Siliguri Corridor. The standoff lasted 73 days, demonstrating India's commitment to Bhutan's territorial integrity and its own security interests. It underscored the critical role Bhutan plays in India's strategic calculus vis-à-vis China and the robustness of India-Bhutan security cooperation.

Mains Hooks

• Gujral Doctrine's Relevance: Evaluate its continued applicability in managing complex bilateral relations, especially with Nepal, where reciprocity is increasingly sought.
• China's Geopolitical Ambitions: Analyze how China's 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI) and increasing presence in South Asia challenge India's traditional influence and necessitate a recalibration of its neighbourhood policy.
• Water Diplomacy: Discuss the potential for water and hydropower cooperation to be a 'hydro-diplomacy' tool or a source of conflict in the Himalayan region, particularly with Nepal.
• Regional Security: Examine the implications of border disputes and external power interventions on regional stability and India's strategic interests, especially concerning the Siliguri Corridor.
• Soft Power and Cultural Diplomacy: Assess the role of shared cultural, religious, and people-to-people ties in fostering goodwill and mitigating political tensions.

Recent Developments

• India-Nepal: Focus on enhancing connectivity, including cross-border railway projects (e.g., Jaynagar-Kurtha, Raxaul-Kathmandu DPR), integrated check posts, and energy cooperation. India has provided significant assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Discussions on the Eminent Persons' Group (EPG) report, aimed at reviewing the 1950 Treaty, are ongoing but without resolution.
• India-Bhutan: Continued robust cooperation in hydropower, with projects like Mangdechhu (commissioned 2019) and Puna Tsangchhu-I & II nearing completion. India remains Bhutan's largest development partner, supporting its 12th and upcoming 13th Five Year Plans. Discussions around Bhutan's tourism policy and potential for digital cooperation are gaining traction. The Doklam issue remains a sensitive point, with ongoing Bhutan-China boundary talks being closely watched by India. India's assistance to Bhutan during the COVID-19 pandemic, including vaccine supply, further solidified ties.