Global Issues

Analysis

Global governance for climate change is characterized by complex negotiations and significant disparities. The principle of CBDR-RC remains central, acknowledging the historical responsibility of developed nations for accumulated greenhouse gas emissions and their greater financial and technological capacity. However, this often leads to a sharp divide, with developed countries repeatedly failing to meet their deadlines for emission reduction and climate finance commitments. The contested nature of climate finance figures, where reported provision (e.g., USD 115.9 billion in 2022) is often much higher than actual estimates (USD 28–35 billion), highlights a fundamental trust deficit. This disparity between climate vulnerability and financial capacity among nations underscores the ongoing challenge.

Developing nations like India prioritize adaptation alongside mitigation, given their high vulnerability to extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and impacts on food and water security. India's strategy focuses on protecting growth, building resilience, and preserving strategic flexibility, while remaining committed to responsible climate action that is technologically feasible and developmentally coherent. The lack of clarity on climate finance provision under the Paris Agreement necessitates continued work programmes, such as the one established at COP 30 in November 2025, to shift focus back to obligations rather than private investments.

Comparison Table: Kyoto Protocol vs. Paris Agreement

Case Study: India's Climate Action and Global Leadership

India has emerged as a significant player in global climate governance. Its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) includes:

1. To propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on conservation and moderation.
2. To adopt a climate-friendly and cleaner path than developed nations at a corresponding level of economic development.
3. To achieve about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030, with international support.
4. To reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 level.
5. To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

Beyond these targets, India has initiated global partnerships like the International Solar Alliance (ISA), jointly launched with France at COP21 in 2015. The ISA aims to reduce the cost of finance and technology for solar deployment. India also launched the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), emphasizing the need for robust infrastructure in the face of climate impacts. India's per capita carbon emissions remain considerably lower than the global average, demonstrating its sustainable growth pathway.

Mains Hooks

• Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Climate action (SDG 13) is intrinsically linked to poverty eradication, food security, health, and clean energy. Global governance for climate change is crucial for achieving the entire 2030 Agenda.
• Energy Security and Transition: India's push for renewables addresses both climate change and energy security, reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports. This transition requires significant investment and technological innovation, often necessitating global partnerships.
• Climate Justice: The concept extends beyond CBDR-RC to include intergenerational equity, ensuring that the burden of climate change does not disproportionately fall on future generations or vulnerable communities within nations.
• Geopolitics of Climate Change: Climate change impacts can exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions, leading to resource conflicts, migration, and instability. Effective global governance can mitigate these risks and foster cooperation.

Recent Developments in Global Governance

While climate change remains a critical area, the concept of global governance is expanding to address other emerging challenges:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance: The rapid advancement of AI necessitates international cooperation to ensure its safe, responsible, and ethical development. The AI Safety Summit in November 2023 at Bletchley Park, UK, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, where countries like the US, UK, EU, China, and India agreed on the urgent need to understand and collectively manage the risks of frontier AI. This marks an early stage in establishing global norms and frameworks for AI safety and development, mirroring the early days of climate negotiations.
• Outer Space Governance: With increasing commercialization and militarization of space, issues of space security, debris management, and responsible behavior are paramount. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 provides a foundational framework, but new challenges demand updated international agreements and space diplomacy to prevent conflicts and ensure the sustainable use of outer space for all. This includes discussions on anti-satellite weapons and norms for lunar exploration.

Analysis

• Challenges in Global Counter-Terrorism: Despite widespread recognition of terrorism as a global threat, a unified international response remains elusive. The stalled CCIT exemplifies this, primarily due to differing geopolitical interests and the lack of a universally accepted definition of terrorism. Some states differentiate between 'freedom fighters' and 'terrorists,' while others are reluctant to include state-sponsored terrorism within the convention's ambit. This definitional ambiguity hinders effective legal cooperation and extradition.
• Effectiveness of FATF: The FATF has proven to be a powerful tool in compelling countries to strengthen their AML/CFT regimes. The threat of being placed on the grey list or black list acts as a significant deterrent, as it can severely impact a country's access to international finance, foreign investment, and overall economic stability. Pakistan's prolonged presence on the grey list, for instance, highlighted the economic and reputational costs of non-compliance, pushing it to implement reforms. However, critics argue that the FATF process can sometimes be politicized.
• Evolving Nature of Cyber Threats: The digital landscape is constantly evolving, presenting new challenges for cyber security. Threats range from sophisticated state-sponsored cyber warfare targeting critical national infrastructure (e.g., power grids, financial systems) to cyber terrorism by non-state actors using ransomware, data breaches, and propaganda dissemination. The anonymity offered by the internet makes attribution difficult, complicating international responses. The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) further complicates defense mechanisms, as these technologies can be leveraged by both attackers and defenders.
• India's Strategic Approach: India's approach to counter-terrorism and cyber security is multi-pronged. Domestically, the NIA's expanded jurisdiction to include cyber-terrorism reflects an understanding of the evolving threat landscape. Internationally, India advocates for a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, pushing for greater information sharing, capacity building, and coordinated action through forums like the UN, G20, and BRICS. India also emphasizes the need for a global framework for cyber norms to prevent the weaponization of cyberspace and ensure its responsible use.

Comparison Table

Case Study: India's Experience with Cross-Border Terrorism

India has been a long-standing victim of cross-border terrorism, notably the 1999 IC-814 hijacking (by Pakistani terrorists) and the 2001 Parliament attack (carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists). These incidents underscored the need for robust domestic counter-terrorism laws like the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) (though later repealed) and eventually the establishment of the NIA. India's persistent demand for action against terrorism emanating from Pakistan, as reflected in its foreign policy objective to "ensure that cross-border terrorism is brought to an end and the entire infrastructure of terrorism operating from Pakistan is dismantled," highlights the direct impact of such threats on its national security and foreign relations.

Mains Hooks

• "The absence of a universal definition of terrorism remains the Achilles' heel of global counter-terrorism efforts, hindering legal cooperation and extradition."
• "In an increasingly interconnected world, cyber security is not merely a technical challenge but a critical national security imperative, demanding robust international cooperation and the establishment of binding cyber norms."
• "India's proactive diplomacy on counter-terrorism, particularly its push for the CCIT and strengthening FATF, reflects its commitment to a rules-based international order and its resolve to combat threats to global peace and security."

Recent Developments

• FATF Plenary Outcomes: Recent FATF plenaries continue to review countries' progress in combating money laundering and terrorism financing. The focus has shifted towards effective implementation of standards, including beneficial ownership transparency and virtual asset regulation.
• National Cyber Security Strategy: India is working on a comprehensive National Cyber Security Strategy to address evolving threats, enhance critical infrastructure protection, and foster a secure and resilient cyberspace. This includes strengthening CERT-In (Indian Computer Emergency Response Team) and promoting public-private partnerships.
• Emerging Threats: The use of deepfakes for disinformation campaigns, ransomware attacks targeting healthcare and critical services, and the potential for AI-driven cyber attacks are emerging concerns that require continuous adaptation of cyber security strategies and international collaboration.

Analysis

The contemporary global order is characterized by a transition from unfettered globalization to what scholars term 'geostrategic globalization' (Schindler & Rolf, 2025). This paradigm shift implies that while countries remain interconnected, they exercise greater caution regarding trade partners, sourcing inputs, and strategic dependencies. The drivers are multifaceted:

1. National Security: Economic interdependence, once seen as a deterrent to conflict, is now often perceived as a vulnerability. Nations are prioritizing self-sufficiency in critical sectors (e.g., defense, healthcare, technology) to mitigate risks of coercion or disruption.
2. Industrial Policy: Governments are actively using trade policy, subsidies, and investment incentives to foster domestic industries deemed strategically important, leading to potential trade distortions and disputes.
3. Technological Sovereignty: The race for technological supremacy, particularly between the US and China, has led to export controls, investment restrictions, and intellectual property disputes, fragmenting global technology ecosystems.
4. Environmental Sustainability: Trade policies are increasingly being leveraged to achieve environmental goals, such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms, which can create new trade barriers.

This environment of strategic distrust is fostering a more fragmented and polarized global order, marked by a weakening of traditional standard-setting international bodies like the WTO. The failure to conclude the Doha Round of negotiations exemplifies the challenges in achieving consensus on global trade norms, further exacerbating imbalances and competition.

Comparison Table

Case Study: US-China Trade War and Tech Rivalry

The US-China trade war, initiated in 2018 under the Trump administration, involved the imposition of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods. While initially framed as addressing trade imbalances and intellectual property theft, it quickly evolved into a broader geopolitical rivalry focused on technological supremacy. The US imposed restrictions on Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE, citing national security concerns, limiting their access to critical components like semiconductors. This led to:

• Supply Chain Diversification: Many companies began relocating manufacturing out of China to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico, aiming for supply chain resilience.
• Technological Decoupling: Efforts to create separate technological ecosystems, particularly in areas like 5G, AI, and advanced chip manufacturing, leading to a 'chip war'.
• Competition for Critical Minerals: Both nations intensified efforts to secure access to rare earths and other critical minerals essential for high-tech industries and renewable energy, highlighting the 'new colonial scramble' for resources.

Mains Hooks

• Multilateralism in Crisis: The weakening of institutions like the WTO and the rise of unilateral/bilateral trade actions underscore the challenges to the post-WWII liberal international order. Discuss the need for WTO reforms.
• Global South Solidarity: Developing nations, often caught between major power rivalries, are increasingly seeking greater Global South solidarity to protect their interests and advocate for a more equitable global economic order. This relates to the persistent North-South divide.
• De-dollarization Debate: The weaponization of financial sanctions has reignited discussions about the long-term sustainability of the USD as an international reserve currency and the potential for alternative currencies or mechanisms (e.g., SDRs) to destabilize the US economy and global finance.
• Arms Control and Disarmament: While not directly trade-related, the intensified geopolitical competition and new cold war dynamics raise concerns about the future of nuclear disarmament and arms control treaties, potentially leading to a new arms race.

Recent Developments

• UNCTAD Data (CY 2025): According to UNCTAD estimates, friendshoring trends (trade growth between politically close countries) have remained consistently above average levels seen in CY 2021, with a notable resurgence in Q3 CY 2025. Nearshoring also showed improvement in Q3 CY 2025, indicating a slight increase in trade growth among geographically proximate countries.
• Trade Concentration: Trade concentration, measured by the Herfindahl concentration index, increased in CY 2025 after a continuous decline, suggesting a greater share of global trade is concentrated in a smaller set of countries.
• Geoeconomic Factors: Geoeconomic factors are now critical determinants in shaping bilateral trade patterns, influencing not only major economies but also their relationships with other nations, leading to geostrategic globalization.